Future Babble [1]

[6]Why do we try to predict the future? According to Dan Gardner, it's because of our human need to protect ourselves that we are constantly attempting to recognize risk before the lions, tigers and bears descend upon us. In Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions are Next to Worthless and You Can Do Better [6], Gardner provides historical insights on the types of futurists able to make the most reliable predictions. Guess what? Those predictions don't come from experts in a field, they come from people with a wide range of knowledge looking at trends from different angles.

As a budding futurist myself, the book feels like both a guide and a warning. On one hand, it supports my belief the best value I can add to the field is focusing on social impact from a storytelling perspective. I can provide a range of insight on education and a few other topics, mostly around consumer technologies and practices, but my greatest skill and interest is the societal change advancements will bring with them including the good and the bad.

On the other hand, there is a warning about being too focused on a topic. Gardner includes examples from history where brilliant historians and futurists filtered out evidence capable of negating their forecasts or remade this evidence into something supportive. Either way, by ignoring or modifying the evidence, their forecasts were unreliable and almost always failed.

I can also learn from this warning, as I recently had to modify my viewpoint on autonomous vehicles. Prior to a conversation with a friend, I truly believed we had a chance of seeing these cars on the road by 2020. My friend disagrees. He has recently completed a graduate level research assignment on the topic and argues the technology will remain too expensive, the code requires too much more work, and legislation allowing for self-driving cars will take longer than that timeframe.

I can't see the expense as an issue. If the cost of genetic sequencing [7] can go from $100 million to $1000 in 15 years, I believe the cost of LIDAR systems can go from $70000 to a few hundred in 6-7 years. Though I don't have numbers to support my view, I do believe enough code revision could happen in the next 6 years to make cars as safe as those piloted by human drivers. Mostly because they would simplify driving conditions, increasing overall safety.

The one area I hadn't considered, and originally devalued as a result, was the need for legislative changes for these vehicles to operate on public roads. As my friend pointed out, some politicians consider voting in favor of allowing self-driving cars to be a huge risk. If you vote to allow them and there is an increase in vehicular accidents and/or deaths, your political opponents will use this against you.

I haven't given up all hope, though I no longer view 2020 as a probable deadline. It could be another 5 or 10 years, but I do believe I will own one within my lifetime and there is a good chance the government might mandate all vehicles must be autonomous within my lifetime as well. Still, information I had not come across or considered has influenced my expectations a great deal. Blind spots like this are especially problematic when attempting to make predictions.

The Fox and the Hedgehog
I've heard a few versions of the fox and the hedgehog, but Gardner's use is the most interesting so far. Based on a quote by the Greek poet Archilochus [8], which goes:

The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.*

In Future Babble, Gardner describes the hedgehog as an expert in one field. Someone with enough background that they see all the moving parts, so many parts they can focus on this field entirely.

The fox is interested in many fields, tracking a range of topics and then looking at how they come together. There's even a reference to James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds [9] and how a group may offer more insight than an individual. (I've just picked this up and will review it when I finish).

This supports (he admits, warily) my view of the value of Regarding Tomorrow. Get enough foxes together and you have a broad view of influences on the future. Even if members don't consider themselves futurists, just their vote for or against something gives foxes/futurists something to consider when forecasting.

A good book?
I'll admit my interest is a bit niche, but I found the information and insights very valuable and recommend Future Babble to anyone based on the history and value of collecting many viewpoints before making a decision. To me, this book is now indispensable. How indispensable? I borrowed it from the library and ordered a copy the minute I finished. It's one of those books I'm glad to make space on the shelf for.

*Troy Patterson at Slate offers an interesting take - On the Origins of Foxes and Hedgehogs [10]